Saturday, Feb 16
Partly Cloudy
High 59°F
Low 40°F
UV Index: 4 Low

 

 

Partly cloudy = rain if I'm anywhere near the track.

Warren

 

Thank you, Warren

 

isn't it a little early to be predicting weather for next week?

 

exactly....anything that is predicted for more than a week in advance will mostly likely change.
I have never got rained out, and there's been times the sky was so dark and cloudy.
But I'm not going so.....

 

I'll take your name off the list.

 

Well, simply stated.....

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - FEB 17 2002
. . . . . . . .
MODEL COMPARISONS: TODAY THE MAIN MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST FOUR DAYS AND EVEN BY DAY 5 THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF...WHICH
HAS BEEN AN OUTLIER MOST OF THE WEEK...AND THE MRF...0Z AND 12Z UKMET...AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AS GREAT TODAY AS YESTERDAY. ALL AGREE ON AN
ACTIVE BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM BEING OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING THE
FIRST FIVE DAYS...KEEPING THE FLOW PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NATION. BY DAY 5 A
TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO HAVE
MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST AS A FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS DIFFERS
FROM YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS WHICH HAD THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP A MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN
END. TODAY THE MAIN MODELS ARE NOT AMPLIFYING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AS MUCH NOR
DIVING IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THEY DID YESTERDAY...SO THAT BY THE START OF THE
6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD TODAYS SOLUTIONS HAVE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE JET
GOING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.

FOR THE D+8 PERIOD THE MRF...MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND DAVA ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDES OF THEIR ANOMALIES DIFFER...
WITH THE MRF FORECASTING THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES AND THE DAVA THE WEAKEST.
THE ECMWF HAS GONE BACK TO A D+8 PATTERN THAT PROJECTS SOMEWHAT ONTO THE
POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA PATTERN...AS IT HAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT THE
ECMWF PATTERN CERTAINLY IS NOT A CLASSIC POSITIVE PNA ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
SUGGESTING AN EVOLUTION TOWARD A POSITIVE PNA. THE OTHER D+8 MEANS PROJECT
BETTER ON THE NEGATIVE PNA PATTERN. ALL THE SOLUTIONS HAVE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AT MIDDLE LATITUDES NEAR THE DATELINE ALTHOUGH TODAYS ECMWF HAS THAT
ANOMALY SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED. THIS ANOMALY CENTER TELECONNECTS WITH A NEGATIVE
PNA. EXAMINATION OF THE ENSEMBLE TOOLS SHOWS CONTINUING FAIRLY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AT EXTENDED TIME RANGES.


[Modified by Grumpy, 8:30 AM 2/8/2002]

 

And you want to know why Snow White keeps Grumpy down the Hall????

 

so what your saying is that its gonna be partly couldy next Saturday?

 

What Warren said.

I'm 4 for 4 on rain @ VIR for year '01.

Maybe '02 will be better

 

LMFAO!

I'm playing it safe. I'm bringing Kumhos Victoracers, Yoko AVSis, and my snow tires. I don't care what it's doing weather-wise. I'm racing.

Matt (hoping Todd doesn't read this thread so I don't have to hear the story about how he passed an F40 with his Civic in the snow at Mid-Ohio again.)

 

I'm 4/4 on rain at VIR as well. I also detonated a diff bearing there once.

Why the hell do I like that place?
Oh yeah, I remember now...