Let me explain the way this is organized.
Carfax marks 8 title states, so you can have ALOT of different combinations.
I decided to tally the results based on which "flags" are set.

Salvage Title,Flood Damage,Rebuilt/Reconstructed Title = 1
Rebuilt/Reconstructed Title = 8
Salvage Title,Junk Title,Rebuilt/Reconstructed Title = 99
Junk Title = 70
Salvage Title = 451
Junk Title,Dismantled Title = 2
Junk Title,Rebuilt/Reconstructed Title,Dismantled Title = 29
Junk Title,Rebuilt/Reconstructed Title = 6
Flood Damage = 1
Salvage Title,Junk Title = 117
Clean Title = 2832
Salvage Title,Flood Damage = 1
Salvage Title,Junk Title,Flood Damage = 1
Salvage Title,Rebuilt/Reconstructed Title = 194
Salvage Title,Junk Title,Rebuilt/Reconstructed Title,Dismantled Title = 22

 

I don't understand what the numbers mean?

What your saying is that out of the three thousand some odd Type-R's in the U.S., these numbers are the total for your eight marks?

Some of the flags are one and the same though.

 

What?

 

Sorry, the numbers are VINs.
So 2832 VINs have clean titles.

 

Good work, Andy!

Let me make sure I understand this correctly.

We already found out that 3850 ITRs were sold in the U.S..

So you're saying that of these 3850 cars, 1018 have been crashed or damaged sufficiently that they were totalled (including some that have been rebuilt and retitled) and the other 2832 have never been totalled.

Is that correct?

 

Wow, great work! If I am reading this correctly, only 73% of the R's are left with clean titles.

 

Damn, I've had 2 of those on the list. Thanks for all the hard work looking into all of this for us.

 

<TABLE WIDTH="90%" CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=0 ALIGN=CENTER><TR><TD>Quote, originally posted by nsxtasy &raquo;</TD></TR><TR><TD CLASS="quote">Good work, Andy!

Let me make sure I understand this correctly.

We already found out that 3850 ITRs were sold in the U.S..

So you're saying that of these 3850 cars, 1018 have been crashed or damaged sufficiently that they were totalled (including some that have been rebuilt and retitled) and the other 2832 have never been totalled.

Is that correct?</TD></TR></TABLE>

Correct, thats what I'm saying.


This is what everyone wants to know, how many are left.
I think we have pretty solid estimates now on how many have been wrecked and stolen.

 

Very cool, excellent work!!!

 

Can we get some more recent statistics? This is very interesting!!

 

good info

 

Great work! Thanks for posting this. 73% left with clean titles. What would a stolen and unrecovered title be on that list? What happens to a title when the car isn't recovered anyways?
Thanks

 

Yes but notice this was posted in 2006. I'm sure the numbers have dramatically decreased since then.

 

LOL! No, I didn't notice...but now that you mention it...

Ya, how about some more recent info! lol!

 

In for recent info!

 

If you:

- take the production for each model year
- define the rate of attrition as the percentage of cars with clean titles in one year which do not have clean titles in the following
- assume that the rate of attrition is the same in all years for all model year ITRs that exist at the start of the year

then you can calculate that rate of attrition based on the known production of U.S.-market ITRs (3850) and the 2832 with clean titles in 2006. That rate of attrition is 4.7 percent per year. Applying that to the 2832 ITRs remaining in 2006 shows that 2,451 ITRs still have clean titles.

 

Basically multiply .953 (which subtracts 4.7 of previous years total) times each year to get the year after year estimate.

For example:
2006=2832 clean titled USDM R's left
2007= (2832x.953) or 2699
2008= (2699x.953) or 2572
2009= (2572x.953) or 2451
2010= (2451x.953) or 2336
2011= (2336x.953) or 2226
and so on...

It would be nice to see some stats like the OP posted to compare the rates. I'd almost bet the theft rate has gone up due to spree's like the Chicago area saw over the past year and Phunkers that keep realizing how easy it is to ruin someones day!

 

I don't believe you can "quantify" this information as there is not constant. I would like to see the report run again, for true numbers instead of going off of what things were like in 06

 

The OP actually posted on another topic back in Sept so he is still active. I've PM'd him. Perhaps he would be nice enough to give us instructions on how to pull this kind of reporting from Carfax OR be kind enough to run the numbers for us again. I know it's asking a lot but it would be the coolest if he could do both!

 

good info

 

Well, hopefully he responds. I would really like to know how it compares to the formula nsxtasy posted above.

 

"There is not constant"? WTF is that supposed to mean?

There is no reason to believe that the rate of attrition is any different for the past three years than the nine years before. One can come up with just as many reasons for it to decline as to increase, and all of them are pure speculation.

Furthermore, if you like picking numbers out of your @$$ to see the effect on the number of cars remaining with clean titles, you can play around with the rate. For example, if you think that the attrition rate has been something other than 4.7 percent for the past three years, you can assume that it went up or down by 1.0 percent as a percent of remaining cars - that would be a change of over 20 percent in the percentage of cars that lose clean titles, which is a huge change - and you'll find that the number of cars with clean titles changes by less than 100 cars over three years:

4.7 percent 2006-2009: 2451 cars with clean titles
3.7 percent 2006-2009: 2529 cars with clean titles
5.7 percent 2006-2009: 2375 cars with clean titles

To put that number into perspective, it's only slightly more than the additional 60 or so cars that would be expected to lose their clean title due to the additional half year not covered when rounding the above numbers to three years of attrition. (Andy's analysis was in April 2006, so there have actually been 3.5 years of attrition rather than 3.0.)

 

Logically though there would be a factor that the older model years would have a higher chance of being in a collision or having been stolen, modified etc. In fact each time a car changes hands this would increase that chance. Additionally you would have to factor that some years had more total produced than other years. At the very best you could make a guess based on historical data but it's still incredibly unpredictable. Supply and demand is also a factor. The fewer cars remaining also changes the odds. I do statistical projections on advertising campaigns hourly each work day. It's what I do for a living. I think we should try and figure out how this data was obtained and reproduce it. That will give us a REAL answer rather than a hypothesis.

 

All of that is already taken into account in the calculation of the attrition rate above. It's based on production for each year and the number of years each car has been around.

Nonsense. Neither of these factors would change the percentage that lost their clean titles during 2006-2009 vs the ones that did during the years leading up to 2006.

 

The fewer number of cars the lesser the rate of attrition.