Something has to set it off. Maybe it's a doofus who races Vipers. But it had to be something. For me it's another header thread on the ITR board (I just can't help it).

Scott Giles is deep into the Froggie Panty zone. This is for me another key barometer. Last year at this time he cut loose a little too. But this year he's just a little further past the edge.

Unusual election results. Unusual economic situation. And a racing season starting up in 4-5 short months. It too will probably be unusual.

Word on the street is nobody is buying anything - even at bargain prices. Unless you read you don't know that the Fed is split on interpretation. Deflation pressure and lack of growth in an economy where the last reliable performers are overcapacity is what you see and feel. And they don't have any tools that will work on that. A fight over what can't be done with tax policy anyway will ensue shortly. Without the hidden hand treating us better, racing in 2003 is looking to be tougher to pull off.

I'm spending my days in painful withdrawl. This is a desperate withdrawl enhanced by that long horizon on the calendar and all the uncertainty between here and then. There's no use talking about it - there's only surviving till it's past and I find myself at the track and put it all out of my mind for another weekend.

Till then it's hard to take anything seriously. Hopelessness prompts that kind of response while you hang in there anyway. This is so like any more serious addiction.

Scott, who says "tell me more about your street race with a Viper at speeds up to 145..........fascinating....."............problem nowdays is that everybody wants you to drink the koolaide.

 

I can't help it either. I've gotten to know personally several of the ITR boyz from the Atlanta and southeastern region -- good people whose company I enjoy. They make me laugh and feel younger than my years, and that's all good. However, the signal to noise ratio on that forum gets whacky at times...

Corporate profits are down, way down. That means companies can't pay down their long term debt, which translates to, among other things, little if any salary increases for employees (those who still have jobs). Translation: people are not buying squat. These are the bleakest of economic times in my adult memory... Mr. Recession is here to stay for awhile.

Casey, who's not quite sure he understands Scott's reference to koolaide...

 

tainted k00laid =

 

it was actually Flavor-aide or some variation in that spelling
*edit* that is of course if there is a reference to Jim Jones that i'm picking up on *edit*

Brian


[Modified by Brian*Black99Si, 1:12 PM 11/8/2002]

 

ah yes, now I see -- Guyana punch!

Will = smart; Casey = "special"

 

Easy the pain by purchasing :blort:'ish parts for the car.
Oh wait... you have.

Will
-who has drank the k00l aid (with Crown Royal in it) and is trying to get some :blort:'riffic rhymz soon

 

LOL

Casey, who learned about "stump juice" (Wyler's powdered lemonade mix, a little water, and tequila) on a camping trip during his college days...

 

Wow!
A lot of Doom and Gloom.
Too Bad.

I feel and view things much differently.

This year was the most profitable year my company ever had.

My 'real job' is super busy with record sells growth and new units openings. In my 'group' of friends there is plently of optimism, buying of new homes, new cars and vacations.

[QUOTE] Unusual election results. [QUOTE]

Not IMO.
Tuesday was kick ***.
Maybe I can get a real tax cut and invest or buy more stuff to help the economic sitiation. Maybe 'when' I get further tax cuts I can rent a larger shop, buy more equipment, buy a enclosed trailer, get that bigger SUV............... etc.

SUPPLY SIDE ECONOMICS.


[QUOTE]
Word on the street is nobody is buying anything - even at bargain prices.
[QUOTE]

Disagree, I'm buying and so are my customers and friends...... I finally got finished with my 'ARRC rush' and am kinda glad the orders have slowed down. I want to play with my new toy.

1. Interest rates are at all time lows. I just re-fi'ed at 15 yr's for 5.45%.
- my morgage was cut in 1/2 the time and still the same payment.-
Try doing that in the late 70's and early 80's with 18% interest rates!

2. Unemployment is still low. NE still under 5%, nation wide a little over 5%.

[QUOTE]
racing in 2003 is looking to be tougher to pull off.
[QUOTE]
real sorry to hear that Scott, I hope things turn around for you.

- Who is this hidden hand?-

-no flame, I just see a bright future-

I'm looking forward to 2003 with much anticipation.

John

 

...this is all well and good but...

How would these wheels look in gold?

What's the best handling suspension I can buy (needs to be less than $400 - that's all I got from the insurance settlement) ?

What would it take for a NA Civic to beat Michael Schumacher's F1 Ferrari?

jOO ba gOO ba Da sCnitlles clooper?

 

You're operating in a higher economic orbit where the weather conditions are better.

I keep having killer sales months too, but all the leading indicators in my business keep pointing down - I look up from the reports to see them.

I know lots of people who (through their own fault ultimately) lost the majority of their life savings and now don't know how they will keep up appearances or pay for their childrens education.

The most highly promoted credit instrument is currently home equity lines of credit and they're being snapped up and used just like a pessimist would fear.

The macroeconomy is a cascade phenomenon in my opinion and can coaxed in the direction it's going - which doesn't keep people from taking credit or laying blame where it's not reasonable (just politic) to do so. That would be the Koolaide I mentioned.

I want to be an optimist, but recently alot of them got wiped out as the bubble burst. I lost confidence in several people who drank the Bubble Koolaide.

Ask youself how money gets into the hands of consumers and how you see more of it getting there when most companies are cutting payroll and personel and not making capital expenditures. The economy runs on growth - think about it. Tax relief as a tool isn't in much better shape than Fed policy right now. I'm very interested in an alternate way of looking at it - I want to experience a bright future at least as much as I want to believe in one.

My reference to the election results was merely to electoral history - not trying to make a big deal there other than to suggest that this is a modestly unique slice of time we're currently living in.

My reference to the Hidden Hand is an allusion to Adam Smith - surely you've heard of him. In my context the hidden hand is the providential current of the brownian motion that is the collectivity of our economic potential and performance. My contention is that nobody understands or controls it - though I like to try for sport.

Scott, who doesn't mean to be a Doom & Gloomer.....I did read Ashbey Bladen for a decade though before Caspar Weinberger axed him......I know you're not flaming John.....and I'm ok with that


[Modified by RR98ITR, 6:51 AM 11/8/2002]

 

Fizzle my shizzle?

Doom and Gloom is trying to become predominate in my neck of the woods also... With my unexpected hike in Insurance rates, it appears that driving the car to the track is becoming more expensive than trailering... even if I have to buy something... This is not good.

 

Scott, you make some great points. However.

[QUOTE]
You're operating in a higher economic orbit where the weather conditions are better.
[QUOTE]

I really don't understand how you can come to this conclution? I can infer that you think from what I've said prior that I'm 'rich'? LOL
No. Just a middle class regular guy.


[QUOTE]
The most highly promoted credit instrument is currently home equity lines of credit and they're being snapped up and used just like a pessimist would fear.
[QUOTE]

This is so true.
My wife is a morgage banker who deals in 2nd, 3rd and yes 4th home equity lines and she comes home with some crazy stories of debt. Mostly from folks that are in 'keeping-up-with-the-Joneses' mode. However, I would agrue that this is their fault not an economic problem.

Yes, it is sad about the life savings and the 'dot-com' mess, but the old saying don't put your eggs in one basket works well. I for one was not hurt because I wasn't involved. I had real problems with these new companies starting up, that produced nothing and a year later were worth more than FORD Motor Company? It was a house of cards and it fell. I for one thought it was driven by a lot of greed.

Much of the rest of what you said is honestly 'over-my-head' , but I really hope things work out for ya and you can get on the track soon.


John

 

No, not suggesting you're rich - I obviously wouldn't know that. Just suggesting that your business and circle of friends is fortunate to be less affected than others.

Scott, who agrees that people's economic problems are usually traced to their own behavior....but the macroeconomy can put a hurt on most of us just the same....and most of what I see is 'over-my-head'.

 

beg yer pardon? no reason to get all rude and stuff.

ok, and just to show my age, what's this business w/ all this 'fizzle' nonsense? I must have missed an important day or three in H-Tville because I haven't a clue where it came from, what it's suppose to be mean, and how to use properly in a sentence...

 

all of this talk of recession makes me fell very fortunate that when I asked my parents if I could move back home, they said yes! lol i'm a loser

carl, who is very much oblivious to the financial turmoil the world may be in due to the fact that he now lives at home and is goin' back to school...lol perpetual student

 

Type-ARRRs are the Fizzzile, and we're down with that shizzel, and if you come to the hizzele we'll buy you a Bizzele! Yo.
you gots dat?

ok, had to get that off my chest after all the gloom and doom...

 

LOL...Vracer111, who be Rizzolin' on the FlizzoaR...

And da Bizzele's be good for clean'n up BizzEaR stizzains...so dats be a gizzoud dizzle!


[Modified by Vracer111, 12:33 PM 11/8/2002]

 

Unusual election results? We could use a little more of that kind of "unusual"!

Apparently there are enough folks out there with the wisdom to realize the nation is paying the "fiddler" for our elected representative's behavior during the mid to late 90's. Good for them.

Now, if that ain't a match to a haystack...

 

Took the words right out of my mouth!


You da Man.

Looking forward to the 108th congress.

 

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH...Adam Smith....AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I cant escape from my major or school. Damn you Scott its Friday and Im reading Honda-Tech and what do I find but Adam Smith.

Anyways Koolaid is ok but Otter Pops are off Da HoOk.

 

Silly season started for me when I parked the car early at the THSCC time trial and worked in timing instead of competing. Something was telling me, "It's Time."

All in that weekend...MaddMatt and I collect a deer on the way to our last track day of the season. Later that day, I Say Eh stuffs the C5. On the way home, r2x' tow vehicle broke in the middle of Nowhere, NC. Rough weekend, and not my favorite way to end a season...but better that than getting in an accident. Oh wait...

 

except in sillicon valley and the recent port closures

the west coast has been doing better than the east coast

When I was in sales, after 9-11 I still made lots of money. Things werent as strong as last last year, but still things are looking up

I doubt christmas will be a strong season for retailers