Finally, some information about theft rates
As you may know, I carfaxed all the ITR VINs.
I have been going through the data and trying to figure out how many have been stolen, wrecked, etc.
Obviously, this all still best guess, because it depends on the validity of the carfax data, but I think we all agreed to say that data was good enough.
There is no really clear way to determine what state a car is in programatically with a carfax report, just because of how its structured. Sure, a human could read every report and make inferences, but I think this will be close enough.
Carfax has, as far as I can tell, only 2 ways of noting that a car was stolen.
The title information is not indicative.
In the detailed vehicle history it notes "Vehicle reported stolen", or "Vehicle recovered after theft". They do not seem to ever appear together, so its one or the other.
Out of the 3835 reports (carfax had no info for 15 of the VINs), there are:
178 "reported stolen"
223 "recovered after theft"
So, a grand total of 401 known thefts out of 3850 cars.
That is 10.42 %.
I am running a program right now to tally up the title states, so we will know soon how many of each title we have. I think it'll finish today, but we'll see.
I have been going through the data and trying to figure out how many have been stolen, wrecked, etc.
Obviously, this all still best guess, because it depends on the validity of the carfax data, but I think we all agreed to say that data was good enough.
There is no really clear way to determine what state a car is in programatically with a carfax report, just because of how its structured. Sure, a human could read every report and make inferences, but I think this will be close enough.
Carfax has, as far as I can tell, only 2 ways of noting that a car was stolen.
The title information is not indicative.
In the detailed vehicle history it notes "Vehicle reported stolen", or "Vehicle recovered after theft". They do not seem to ever appear together, so its one or the other.
Out of the 3835 reports (carfax had no info for 15 of the VINs), there are:
178 "reported stolen"
223 "recovered after theft"
So, a grand total of 401 known thefts out of 3850 cars.
That is 10.42 %.
I am running a program right now to tally up the title states, so we will know soon how many of each title we have. I think it'll finish today, but we'll see.
<TABLE WIDTH="90%" CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=0 ALIGN=CENTER><TR><TD>Quote, originally posted by neo_ »</TD></TR><TR><TD CLASS="quote">So, 1 out of every 10 ITRs is stolen.
(with the precentage climbing)</TD></TR></TABLE>
(with the precentage climbing)</TD></TR></TABLE>
my question to u is how are u finding all this information such as the vin numbers to all of our cars and wether or not if we have the title to them? i mean if u can find this out cant anyone then such as thieves
<TABLE WIDTH="90%" CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=0 ALIGN=CENTER><TR><TD>Quote, originally posted by rsx veilside »</TD></TR><TR><TD CLASS="quote">my question to u is how are u finding all this information such as the vin numbers to all of our cars and wether or not if we have the title to them? i mean if u can find this out cant anyone then such as thieves</TD></TR></TABLE>
See the sticky thread at the top about how many ITRs were produced for the USDM market. That should explain.
The short answer is yes, anyone can do this.
See the sticky thread at the top about how many ITRs were produced for the USDM market. That should explain.
The short answer is yes, anyone can do this.
wow, that's interesting that you are actually doing all this searching. thanks man
and 10% seems like nothing... I wish that were true for the Seattle area. It seems like at least half of all the Type R's I have known up here get stolen eventually. It probably depends on the area. I know California has extremely high thieft numbers too
and 10% seems like nothing... I wish that were true for the Seattle area. It seems like at least half of all the Type R's I have known up here get stolen eventually. It probably depends on the area. I know California has extremely high thieft numbers too
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Another intersting thread. I hope this get's stickied like the last one. Thanks for your interesting contribution to the Type-R community. Maybe post this information on ITRCA too?
<TABLE WIDTH="90%" CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=0 ALIGN=CENTER><TR><TD>Quote, originally posted by emotionisdead »</TD></TR><TR><TD CLASS="quote">mine is one of those 178 reported stolen.
</TD></TR></TABLE>
I just bought myself my first gun. I plan on ensuring a painfull end to an attempted theft on my itr. ALso you have my deepest sympathies concerning your loss.
</TD></TR></TABLE>I just bought myself my first gun. I plan on ensuring a painfull end to an attempted theft on my itr. ALso you have my deepest sympathies concerning your loss.
As you may know, I carfaxed all the ITR VINs.
I have been going through the data and trying to figure out how many have been stolen, wrecked, etc.
Obviously, this all still best guess, because it depends on the validity of the carfax data, but I think we all agreed to say that data was good enough.
Out of the 3835 reports (carfax had no info for 15 of the VINs), there are:
178 "reported stolen"
223 "recovered after theft"
So, a grand total of 401 known thefts out of 3850 cars.
That is 10.42 %.
I am running a program right now to tally up the title states, so we will know soon how many of each title we have. I think it'll finish today, but we'll see.
I have been going through the data and trying to figure out how many have been stolen, wrecked, etc.
Obviously, this all still best guess, because it depends on the validity of the carfax data, but I think we all agreed to say that data was good enough.
Out of the 3835 reports (carfax had no info for 15 of the VINs), there are:
178 "reported stolen"
223 "recovered after theft"
So, a grand total of 401 known thefts out of 3850 cars.
That is 10.42 %.
I am running a program right now to tally up the title states, so we will know soon how many of each title we have. I think it'll finish today, but we'll see.
Last edited by 4DRDB8GSR; Feb 28, 2009 at 04:38 PM.
You could probably come up with some pretty good estimates by assuming the percentage rate of attrition is the same for 2006-2009 as it was for the previous 5-9 years (depending on year). For example, if 10.5 percent of the cars are stolen in 5-9 years, a rate of around 1.5 percent per year, then another roughly 4.5 percent of the remaining cars would have been stolen in the three years since then. You can do the same thing with the percentage of crashed/totalled cars.
Last edited by nsxtasy; Feb 28, 2009 at 06:03 PM.
Funny that I just saw this thread. I bought my R last year in FL and registered it in RI. A potential buyer ran a carfax on my car and it has no history of me purchasing, registering or even passing safety and emissions on the report. So, exactly how accurate are those carfax reports?
It's the total number of ITRs sold new in the United States since they were first introduced in 1997, including all four model years (1997, 1998, 2000, and 2001).
You could probably come up with some pretty good estimates by assuming the percentage rate of attrition is the same for 2006-2009 as it was for the previous 5-9 years (depending on year). For example, if 10.5 percent of the cars are stolen in 5-9 years, a rate of around 1.5 percent per year, then another roughly 4.5 percent of the remaining cars would have been stolen in the three years since then. You can do the same thing with the percentage of crashed/totalled cars.
anyone else down?
You are planning to do this manually? Like, you are going to manually enter the VINs one at a time and then say record all the relevant info in a spreadsheet?
i just need another $30 donated towards the $39.99 unlimited carfax and ill get on it.
-Wes


