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Finally, some information about theft rates

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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 12:46 PM
  #1  
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Default Finally, some information about theft rates

As you may know, I carfaxed all the ITR VINs.
I have been going through the data and trying to figure out how many have been stolen, wrecked, etc.
Obviously, this all still best guess, because it depends on the validity of the carfax data, but I think we all agreed to say that data was good enough.

There is no really clear way to determine what state a car is in programatically with a carfax report, just because of how its structured. Sure, a human could read every report and make inferences, but I think this will be close enough.

Carfax has, as far as I can tell, only 2 ways of noting that a car was stolen.
The title information is not indicative.
In the detailed vehicle history it notes "Vehicle reported stolen", or "Vehicle recovered after theft". They do not seem to ever appear together, so its one or the other.

Out of the 3835 reports (carfax had no info for 15 of the VINs), there are:
178 "reported stolen"
223 "recovered after theft"

So, a grand total of 401 known thefts out of 3850 cars.
That is 10.42 %.

I am running a program right now to tally up the title states, so we will know soon how many of each title we have. I think it'll finish today, but we'll see.
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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 02:05 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (andyt)

I tip my hat to you sir, for all of the number crunching. -And the intiative to do it!
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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 03:17 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (neo_)

<TABLE WIDTH="90%" CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=0 ALIGN=CENTER><TR><TD>Quote, originally posted by neo_ &raquo;</TD></TR><TR><TD CLASS="quote">So, 1 out of every 10 ITRs is stolen.

(with the precentage climbing)</TD></TR></TABLE>
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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 04:07 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (andyt)

my question to u is how are u finding all this information such as the vin numbers to all of our cars and wether or not if we have the title to them? i mean if u can find this out cant anyone then such as thieves
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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 04:32 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (rsx veilside)

<TABLE WIDTH="90%" CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=0 ALIGN=CENTER><TR><TD>Quote, originally posted by rsx veilside &raquo;</TD></TR><TR><TD CLASS="quote">my question to u is how are u finding all this information such as the vin numbers to all of our cars and wether or not if we have the title to them? i mean if u can find this out cant anyone then such as thieves</TD></TR></TABLE>

See the sticky thread at the top about how many ITRs were produced for the USDM market. That should explain.
The short answer is yes, anyone can do this.
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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 05:37 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (andyt)

wow, that's interesting that you are actually doing all this searching. thanks man

and 10% seems like nothing... I wish that were true for the Seattle area. It seems like at least half of all the Type R's I have known up here get stolen eventually. It probably depends on the area. I know California has extremely high thieft numbers too
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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 06:00 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (andyt)

mine is one of those 178 reported stolen.
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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 06:08 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (andyt)

geez, nice work
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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 06:30 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (andyt)

thanks for contributing your time and efforts
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Old Apr 15, 2006 | 10:19 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (KayOs)

Nice efforts.
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Old Apr 16, 2006 | 12:42 AM
  #11  
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (SoCal ITR)

Another intersting thread. I hope this get's stickied like the last one. Thanks for your interesting contribution to the Type-R community. Maybe post this information on ITRCA too?
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Old Apr 16, 2006 | 04:24 AM
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Default

Id say thats some pretty solid data

sadly, it only shows that there are still quite a few ITRs left out there that havent been raped.
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Old Apr 16, 2006 | 06:53 AM
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Default Re: (clip the apex)

nice work man!
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Old Apr 16, 2006 | 12:32 PM
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Default Re: (PY TYPE R 483)

neat to see the numbers.

I've got a couple hundred megs of pictures of gutted ITR's - it's amazing how many are out there.
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Old Apr 16, 2006 | 08:20 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates (emotionisdead)

<TABLE WIDTH="90%" CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=0 ALIGN=CENTER><TR><TD>Quote, originally posted by emotionisdead &raquo;</TD></TR><TR><TD CLASS="quote">mine is one of those 178 reported stolen. </TD></TR></TABLE>

I just bought myself my first gun. I plan on ensuring a painfull end to an attempted theft on my itr. ALso you have my deepest sympathies concerning your loss.
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 04:30 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

Originally Posted by andyt
As you may know, I carfaxed all the ITR VINs.
I have been going through the data and trying to figure out how many have been stolen, wrecked, etc.
Obviously, this all still best guess, because it depends on the validity of the carfax data, but I think we all agreed to say that data was good enough.



Out of the 3835 reports (carfax had no info for 15 of the VINs), there are:
178 "reported stolen"
223 "recovered after theft"

So, a grand total of 401 known thefts out of 3850 cars.
That is 10.42 %.

I am running a program right now to tally up the title states, so we will know soon how many of each title we have. I think it'll finish today, but we'll see.
We need to update this, 401 theft title's out of 3,835 car's 3yrs ago. What about the wrecked #'s? lets rerun the vin's and find out how many Clean Title ITR's are actually left.

Last edited by 4DRDB8GSR; Feb 28, 2009 at 04:38 PM.
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 04:55 PM
  #17  
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

+1 on the wrecked ITRs....Mine was wrecked and rebuilt!
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 05:18 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

Originally Posted by 4DRDB8GSR
We need to update this, 401 theft title's out of 3,835 car's 3yrs ago. What about the wrecked #'s? lets rerun the vin's and find out how many Clean Title ITR's are actually left.
You could probably come up with some pretty good estimates by assuming the percentage rate of attrition is the same for 2006-2009 as it was for the previous 5-9 years (depending on year). For example, if 10.5 percent of the cars are stolen in 5-9 years, a rate of around 1.5 percent per year, then another roughly 4.5 percent of the remaining cars would have been stolen in the three years since then. You can do the same thing with the percentage of crashed/totalled cars.

Last edited by nsxtasy; Feb 28, 2009 at 06:03 PM.
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 05:54 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

Funny that I just saw this thread. I bought my R last year in FL and registered it in RI. A potential buyer ran a carfax on my car and it has no history of me purchasing, registering or even passing safety and emissions on the report. So, exactly how accurate are those carfax reports?
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Old Feb 28, 2009 | 09:06 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

Originally Posted by dc2r_j
and 10% seems like nothing... I wish that were true for the Seattle area.
- I agree.

Just to clarify, is 3850 the total # of USDM ITR's? or total # sold in the US since 1997?
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Old Mar 1, 2009 | 07:49 AM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

Originally Posted by mister_r0b
- I agree.

Just to clarify, is 3850 the total # of USDM ITR's? or total # sold in the US since 1997?
Total USDM ITR's.
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Old Mar 1, 2009 | 09:33 AM
  #22  
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

Originally Posted by mister_r0b
Just to clarify, is 3850 the total # of USDM ITR's? or total # sold in the US since 1997?
Huh? What's the difference?

It's the total number of ITRs sold new in the United States since they were first introduced in 1997, including all four model years (1997, 1998, 2000, and 2001).
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Old Mar 1, 2009 | 11:33 PM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

Originally Posted by nsxtasy
You could probably come up with some pretty good estimates by assuming the percentage rate of attrition is the same for 2006-2009 as it was for the previous 5-9 years (depending on year). For example, if 10.5 percent of the cars are stolen in 5-9 years, a rate of around 1.5 percent per year, then another roughly 4.5 percent of the remaining cars would have been stolen in the three years since then. You can do the same thing with the percentage of crashed/totalled cars.
Lets just rerun all 3835 vins for the $39.99 and keep a database up to date. as many as there are, if 'andyt' did them all i can too, and it will only ge easier as time goes on. i have $10 on the unlimited carfax account and lll start running the vins.

anyone else down?
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 05:59 AM
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

You are planning to do this manually? Like, you are going to manually enter the VINs one at a time and then say record all the relevant info in a spreadsheet?
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Old Mar 2, 2009 | 03:00 PM
  #25  
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Default Re: Finally, some information about theft rates

Originally Posted by andyt
You are planning to do this manually? Like, you are going to manually enter the VINs one at a time and then say record all the relevant info in a spreadsheet?
You got it! we have allthe vins already and i feel it's part of my duty as a new ItR owner!,

i just need another $30 donated towards the $39.99 unlimited carfax and ill get on it.

-Wes
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