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Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

 
Old 05-15-2019, 11:34 AM
  #151  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

Because everybody is just falling down the job scale.

You're a funny dude, 020.
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:35 AM
  #152  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

I have an interesting observation on the whole automation thing...

As an engineer trained up in the 1970s, my skills were stagnating, stagnating for no other reason than I made the conscious decision to let many of my peers move on to newer technologies; unfortunately for them, said new technology jobs had their wages diluted by a massive influx of engineers from India. By staying in an older technology, I was able to partially offset the wage decline, even still, I saw my monthly income get cut in half between 2000 and 2013. Then in 2015 my job got "off-shored" to India and I got moved onto a new engineering platform which was supposed to be the go-forward platform; yeah, about that, the new platform got off-shored to India in 2017. To say I was starting to fear for my livelihood is a gross understatement.

Beating the bushes for a shiny new toy to play with I came up with A) IT Security, B) AI from an analytical perspective, and C) AI from a human speech interaction perspective. I swung the bat at the first two and didn't gain any traction due to an utter lack of experience, however, there are a number of companies offering free access to their AI tools for speech and chat (I should say, free for individuals, corporations pay handsomely), and I threw myself into learning one from Google called "api.ai" (now called DialogFlow), and managed to land a new gig; in spite of the fact I had no experience, there is such a lack of folks skilled in that toolset, I was hired almost immediately based upon the skills I'd learned from YouTube and other resources. While I have yet to catch up to what I was bringing in back in 2000, I am well on my way.

I guess the moral of the story above is, when new technologies present themselves, these days as often as not, tools are made available over the internet for little or no charge, and if one is well enough motivated to learn, a career change, even for old farts in their 60s (like me), can pay handsome dividends.
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:50 AM
  #153  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

Originally Posted by Caoboy View Post
Because everybody is just falling down the job scale.

You're a funny dude, 020.
I didn't argue that *everybody is falling down the job scale" and I'm not sure what that means.
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:59 AM
  #154  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

One of my previous jobs was creating automated robotic equipment, and other jobs Iíve had involved it to a lesser or greater extent, so I think that MY career (building the automation) is pretty secure.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:05 PM
  #155  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

Originally Posted by 020 View Post
Except their low wage job is being replaced and they are going to lower wage jobs. Or their medium wage job is being replaced and they go to a lower wage job. That is what is happening and what has happened to much of the middle class. As for any job being automated I haven't seen that argued I have seen the opposite. Regarding history it is irrelevant. The past does not predict the future and you can't bank on the past. It's a common mistake in investing. So no one said it is a zero sum game. The problem is stratification of wealth and the decrease in decent paying jobs and the general lowering or stagnation of wages. You are arguing that jobs aren't going to disappear in general which I have not seen argued.
This is happening in America or the world over? Remember, automation isn't unique to America, so you can't just cite American figures or trends in support of such arguments. Especially when I've seen many of the people who make this argument have previously stated these phenomena are a result of American economic policy, such as tax policy and minimum wage laws. Keep in mind I'm not pointing figures with this statement, just pointing out alternative interpretations.

You are basing an argument on facts not in evidence IMHO.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:09 PM
  #156  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

Originally Posted by rochesterricer View Post
This is happening in America or the world over? Remember, automation isn't unique to America, so you can't just cite American figures or trends in support of such arguments. Especially when I've seen many of the people who make this argument have previously stated these phenomena are a result of American economic policy, such as tax policy and minimum wage laws. Keep in mind I'm not pointing figures with this statement, just pointing out alternative interpretations.

You are basing an argument on facts not in evidence IMHO.
I'm focusing on the US because most of us are US-based.

Facts for evidence:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...TC_vcw5uBmjm0G

Pages 7, 12,13, supplement CRS-21, 22-25

Second evidence:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publ...ng-term-trend/
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:18 PM
  #157  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

Originally Posted by 020 View Post
I'm focusing on the US because most of us are US-based.

Facts for evidence:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...TC_vcw5uBmjm0G

Pages 7, 12,13, supplement CRS-21, 22-25

Second evidence:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publ...ng-term-trend/
I do not have time now for a deep dive into your sources, but at a glance they both appear to be studies based on the US correct?
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:21 PM
  #158  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

Originally Posted by rochesterricer View Post
I do not have time now for a deep dive into your sources, but at a glance they both appear to be studies based on the US correct?
Yes.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:28 PM
  #159  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

Originally Posted by 020 View Post
Yes.
As I indicated, I really don't like confining such evidence to the US. Even if a study or research paper tries to make a direct connection I feel it is problematic unless the effect can be corroborated across the world.
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Old 05-15-2019, 02:24 PM
  #160  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

Originally Posted by 020 View Post
I didn't argue that *everybody is falling down the job scale" and I'm not sure what that means.
Originally Posted by 020 View Post
Except their low wage job is being replaced and they are going to lower wage jobs. Or their medium wage job is being replaced and they go to a lower wage job. That is what is happening and what has happened to much of the middle class. As for any job being automated I haven't seen that argued I have seen the opposite. Regarding history it is irrelevant. The past does not predict the future and you can't bank on the past. It's a common mistake in investing. So no one said it is a zero sum game. The problem is stratification of wealth and the decrease in decent paying jobs and the general lowering or stagnation of wages. You are arguing that jobs aren't going to disappear in general which I have not seen argued.
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Old 05-15-2019, 02:49 PM
  #161  
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Default Re: Official automation thread: Is your job at risk?

Originally Posted by Caoboy View Post
quote
That is cited in the sources I posted above.
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