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Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

 
Old 01-10-2019, 08:11 AM
  #51  
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by black_EM1 View Post
This is my current situation.

Bought out near the lake for a great price, into a family surburb. However, nearly everything "cool" is 30min minimum. Thankfully, there's a highway near (few highways, actually), along with a huge shopping center ~10 minutes away. Were is further and undeveloped, I couldn't do it.
You're in the DFW area right? My sister and brother in law are moving out there and we took a trip with them last month. The urban sprawl in that area is NUTS...and this is coming from a guy that was born and raised in Southern California.
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:24 AM
  #52  
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Things are slowly changing in my part of town. The Armenian and Russian shops closed and are turning into art galleries and coffee shops. The billiards hall has been knocked down for a new apartment complex. The one that recently opened up starts at $2500 for a studio…okay my neighborhood is gentrifying, dammit
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:27 AM
  #53  
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Raleigh dodged a bullet by not getting the HQ2 bid, while I'm not opposed to gentrification, this area couldn't have sustained it without a mass displacement of low-income households, especially in downtown districts where you can pick up pieces of crap for next to nothing. NoVA is a much better candidate for housing concerns.

Either way, this market is red hot... We opted not to buy into a neighborhood that was turning over in the typical sense, but an established neighborhood from the 70's where a lot of people are dying off and young families are coming in. Homes are routinely getting bulldozed in exchange for McMansions, but we're happy in our ugly split-level. There's a 20 & 33-story tower going in without a stop light or busy road in between us, so the unsolicited purchase offers have been coming in for sure.

Will definitely ride this neighborhood out through middle school and maybe convert that equity (if it exists) into one of those expensive "forever homes" where valuation upside isn't really a concern. But for the meantime, we're not getting excited about the massive uptick in value as there's nowhere else we'd go (shy of moving to Denver to buy one of lude's evil properties)
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:55 AM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by BauleyCivic View Post
What's really sad is that regular folks are being completely priced out of SFH's. That's been a trend in the more expensive areas but is slowly moving outward into the suburbs. "Starter home" is now relegated to condos and TH's in a lot of places.
That's very true. RIP American dream.

Originally Posted by BeeResp0nsible View Post
Why so personal bluuu?
Not personal at all. OLS and I are fine.

Originally Posted by oneludesol View Post
I'm not trying to price anyone out, and I assure you, the regular folks living within a mile of anything I build are nothing but appreciative for the astronomical comp nearby, and the five figure +++ effect it has on their property value. I don't take away anyone's home, and I all but hand $20-50k in instant equity to anyone living nearby. How is that bad for the regular folk?
That's great for the folks selling their houses. Bad for those looking to buy.

Originally Posted by Tim2179 View Post
Housing developments are going up all over Denver. The poors have plenty of choices.

As you get into the resort areas west of Denver - they have programs that require a certain percentage of homes that must be available at low cost to locals.

The reason why you tend to see fewer low and mid level SFHs being built these days is because the start up costs involved are the same for those houses as they are for high end houses, so builders tend to go high end.
The Poor's don't have plenty of choice bruh. I have ties to Denver, regular folks are being priced out at crazy rates.
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:58 AM
  #55  
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You're gonna be rich Ross
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Old 01-10-2019, 09:02 AM
  #56  
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Originally Posted by BauleyCivic View Post
What's really sad is that regular folks are being completely priced out of SFH's. That's been a trend in the more expensive areas but is slowly moving outward into the suburbs. "Starter home" is now relegated to condos and TH's in a lot of places.
What does a starter home cost and what do regular people make?

This is my starter home, I didn't own **** until I was 36. And it's a decent-size SFH.

*I live in kind of a crappy neighborhood tho

Originally Posted by BauleyCivic View Post
I think you should definitely be excited about the Metro. That's going to be massive for that area and will drive expansion/increase in real estate values. Look what it's done for the area around the Wiehle stop. Will Herndon become the new Vienna? Old homes being torn down and mega mansions being built instead? Not necessarily...main reason being Ashburn is a far nicer area and really isn't that much further away. They will have a Metro station before too long as well. Look at the area around the Greenway/LCP. Numerous expensive townhome complexes being built in anticipation of the Metro coming through. Also Herndon doesn't have a OneLoudoun/RTC equivalent (yet). I could see the shopping center where Kohls/Wendys is perhaps getting a makeover...as well as Worldgate getting a makeover once the Metro comes in.
Funny you mention "the next Vienna" because that's just what I'm hoping for. Herndon has something that the newer and further-out towns don't...a somewhat grimy historic district. That **** is like crack for yuppies. There's a town green, historic buildings, and a trolley car where the trail runs through the center of town. With the microbrewery coming in, I think it will be a magnet for people who are looking for a more authentic feel and less plasticky than the newer parts (like all of Herndon south of the Toll Rd).

What has the Metro done for the area around Wiehle? There really wasn't that much residential property in that area to begin with, just office parks, toll road ramps, shopping centers.

Herndon is definitely revitalizing, haven't heard anything about Worldgate or Kohl's plazas yet, but there is a major project underway closer to the Reston side where the Kmart used to be. Getting a fancy organic "farmer's market", LA Fitness, etc.

Originally Posted by BauleyCivic
My area is really starting to take off. "Moving out" these days really means moving to Purcellville, Round Hill, etc. South Riding and the surrounding areas are continuing to blow up and will only see more retail/activities coming in. ****, my townhouse appreciated almost 5% in the last six months alone. Not sure if Amazon or other factors are driving that kind of growth, but I'll take it.
It's everything, this area is a boomtown and Amazon is only going to help everyone as Arlington and Alexandria get even more unaffordable. The exurbs are actually poised to see the greatest growth, like Stafford County for example. Fairfax is projected to grow a lot too but not as much as those outer counties. People are fleeing the traffic, high cost of living, demographics, etc.

Originally Posted by oneludesol View Post
Now I could be wrong, but I feel like you and I went round after ugly round a few years ago on the topic of gentrification, and you weren't on the side of "excited" regarding the concept. Am I mistaken, or did you evolve?
If you can find the exchange I'll be glad to look at it, I'm guessing if we had an argument it was more likely over a side comment and not whether gentrification is good or bad (I basically see it as inevitable with the way out society and markets work).

Like Blue said, I'm a capitalist. It's a shame more people don't realize that.
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Old 01-10-2019, 09:13 AM
  #57  
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I'll share a little anecdote for people who believe gentrification is ALWAYS a good thing:

Here in Detroit gentrification has turned up to eleven over the past 5 years. Especially downtown where Dan Gilbert (yes the one who owns Quicken and the Cavs) has scooped up properties and renovated them. The thing is rent in those places is so expensive that Quicken Loans pays for a portion of their employees rent if they live downtown in one of GIlbert's properties. There's a trend in that company and a few other places where their employees are either forced to live in buildings owned by the CEO or drive an 1hr+ to the burbs because the infrastructure in this city is so terrible. Many of the rennovated buildings that are "too nice" for average folks are sitting empty because landlords are waiting for Amazon, Google, etc. to move in so their young management will occupy these $3500+/mo apartments. The problem is these companies have turned the city down so landlords don't want to devalue the property and lower the rent which has resulted in a lot of premium property sitting empty in buildings that were once occupied with renters.

Then there's the Illitch family who has made a killing off of buying abandoned buildings, letting them sit, getting money from the city to knock them down, and then building surface lots where they charge suburbanites who come into town for sporting events $50 for a parking spot. What's even scummier is when they buy an occupied building, kick out the renters, take out the windows so the building ages faster, and then get city money to tear them down and build lots. The reason the city lets it happen is the Illitch's have been promising development for 30 years and offer beautiful renderings of projects that never pan out. Once in a while they'll do a mild remodel on a marquee to keep the city in their back pocket.
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Old 01-10-2019, 10:15 AM
  #58  
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Mike Ilitch...The Red Wings owner?
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Old 01-10-2019, 10:47 AM
  #59  
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Originally Posted by Ross View Post
Mike Ilitch...The Red Wings owner?
Yup Red Wings and Tigers (well the family's holding company owns them). The stuff they pull is so audicious it's borderline unbelieveable. Thankfully a lot of people woke up to their business practices with the boom in interest in Detroit. The "Terrible Ilitches" Facbook page does a really good job airing out their business dealings.

It's really insanity. They recieved ~$325 million in public subsidies for the new arena they built because they were going to make the blocks around the building residental development, restaurants, shops, etc. The renderings they used to apply for public money were really slick and looked great. Now the mentions of the neighborhoods that were going to form "District Detroit' are all surface lots. They even deleted all references to the neighborhoods on their website. They did the same thing with Comerica Park.


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Old 01-10-2019, 04:23 PM
  #60  
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That sucks, he had done some really neat things like paying Rosa Parks' rent.
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:50 PM
  #61  
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Gentrification caused our home values to only fall 10~12% during the 08 housing crisis.
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Old 01-10-2019, 07:11 PM
  #62  
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I used to live in Silver Lake (small expensive neighborhood in Los Angeles) when I was a kid. Even in the mid 90s there was more white that mexicans but I recently went there to visit and it looks like it got way more expensive. From what I gather its at least 90% white people who have money but enjoy electric cars or old diesel mercedez.
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Old 01-10-2019, 07:20 PM
  #63  
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Originally Posted by junior40er View Post
I used to live in Silver Lake (small expensive neighborhood in Los Angeles) when I was a kid. Even in the mid 90s there was more white that mexicans but I recently went there to visit and it looks like it got way more expensive. From what I gather its at least 90% white people who have money but enjoy electric cars or old diesel mercedez.
Even I've heard of Silver Lake and I'm on the opposite coast. Safe to say it's gentrified as **** lol.

I never got a specific answer about the development down the street but I think with everything else happening it's a pretty safe assumption.
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Old 01-10-2019, 07:44 PM
  #64  
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Sounds like dude is subdividing his lot and likely going to sell all 4 when the houses are done being built. Cashing in on the wave. Smart if you have the money and don't want the land.

@ross, just flip your house and move into a better neighborhood .

I planned on keeping mine as a rental (I still might) but likely will sell and move to a different town, closer to my workplace.


As far as gentrification, I've no dog in the fight.
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:05 PM
  #65  
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Originally Posted by Caoboy View Post
Sounds like dude is subdividing his lot and likely going to sell all 4 when the houses are done being built. Cashing in on the wave. Smart if you have the money and don't want the land.

@ross, just flip your house and move into a better neighborhood .
It's only 3 lots. The property has been sold for a while, I doubt very much that it was actually the owner living in it. It was a total shithole, a 2BR/1BA eyesore.

It sold for around $630k in 2017 IIRC.

I'd assume that each of these 3 houses will be $700k+.

Re flipping the house...can't do it yet. I think it's probably worth around $20-30k more than we paid and that's about what it costs to sell a house. We need to wait another 2-3 years IMO...hopefully it will be solidly above $550k then.
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:21 PM
  #66  
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Originally Posted by Ross View Post
Even I've heard of Silver Lake and I'm on the opposite coast. Safe to say it's gentrified as **** lol.

I never got a specific answer about the development down the street but I think with everything else happening it's a pretty safe assumption.
close to Hollywood, somewhat secluded for being in L.A.....crazy how times change.
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:36 PM
  #67  
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Originally Posted by Ross View Post
It's only 3 lots. The property has been sold for a while, I doubt very much that it was actually the owner living in it. It was a total shithole, a 2BR/1BA eyesore.

It sold for around $630k in 2017 IIRC.

I'd assume that each of these 3 houses will be $700k+.

Re flipping the house...can't do it yet. I think it's probably worth around $20-30k more than we paid and that's about what it costs to sell a house. We need to wait another 2-3 years IMO...hopefully it will be solidly above $550k then.
Don't bank on the housing market. Can you improve your house to build equity? Have you checked out interest rates and what they're doing since you've bought your house?
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Old 01-10-2019, 10:00 PM
  #68  
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Originally Posted by Caoboy View Post
Don't bank on the housing market. Can you improve your house to build equity? Have you checked out interest rates and what they're doing since you've bought your house?
​​​​​​
I'm not banking on it, that's kinda why I made the thread. Interest rates have definitely gone up and people are starting to realize that Trump either doesn't care about the economy or is actively trying to tank it either out of spite or because he's shorting the market lol. However, unless you get really unlucky like my wife did before we got together...this area is pretty safe. It didn't go down like most everything else did and it came back quicker/stronger than most other markets did.

Re improvements, it's already probably the nicest house in the neighborhood. Previous owners had put it on the market for $530k, obviously anticipating big demand due to incoming Metro and revitalization. But they dropped it to $499 and then $459 before taking it off the market to re-do the kitchen and all the bathrooms.

There is a 500 sq-ft addition out back with skylights, ceiling fan, French doors...fully fenced back yard that backs to a park, some nice hardscaping in the back yard as well as 2 hand-built sheds. We also have a 2-car garage (another addition) where the rest of the development has only 1-cars. And the back yard has enough privacy to take a nice long dump out there if you wanted. There really isn't much for us to do but wait and just fix/upgrade appliances along the way.
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Old 01-11-2019, 04:14 AM
  #69  
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Originally Posted by Ross View Post
On the other side of us, around the other corner, is MS-13 territory. That's my problem value-wise. Subsidized housing, periodic murders, and one of those 7-Elevens where tons of (presumably undocumented) immigrants hang out waiting for work.
I wouldn't be surprised if its been done before in other places, but could the city arbitrarily raise the **** out of the property value and/or increase property taxes in an effort to drive them out? Or do gangsters not care about taxes? Maybe it'll backfire and they do more crime to raise funds for tax?


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Old 01-11-2019, 05:15 AM
  #70  
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Originally Posted by Ross View Post
I'm not banking on it, that's kinda why I made the thread. Interest rates have definitely gone up and people are starting to realize that Trump either doesn't care about the economy.
well TBH, Trump has very little to do w/interest rates. Interest rates were only made low in the past few years in order to get us out of the post-housing bubble crap economy. They're still not as high as they were before the crash. Pissed I didn't pull the trigger when rates were under 3.5%. What rate are you at Ross? 500k at 5% is $25000/yr in interest, compared to $17500 at 3.5%, which works out to be about $650/mo difference. Nothing to sneeze at. When I bought my current place in '06, I was at 5.8% and that was the best you could get with a +800 credit score. Robbery!
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:40 AM
  #71  
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5.8%!?!?!? Gottdam, that's insane!

3.25% here. Tried using a bit of equity recently to consolidate some debt at a lower rate but the VA Loan (in Texas at least) carries some restrictions that would have required me to refinance the entire amount. They couldn't come back with anything under 4.5% so I chose to leave it, wasn't about to take that longterm hit to save a few bucks on consumer debt.
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:48 AM
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Originally Posted by 213374U View Post
5.8%!?!?!? Gottdam, that's insane!
I was bragging about that **** at the time. Rates have never been as low as they were in the last yr or 2. And it's part of the reason current inventory is low and slow to move. People with great rates aren't too excited about moving and having to pay twice as much in interest.

Back in the 80s, interest rates were in the double digits. But houses were cheaper and most ppl were going with 15 yr notes. The 30 yr note has really put a damper on wealth creation. Ppl are able to afford more house, but they have no equity build up after 7 years - the average length of time ppl tend to stay in their homes - so the banks are making out and any profit gets eaten up in transaction costs. Wont be surprised if we start seeing 40 year mortgages popping up soon.
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:51 AM
  #73  
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Originally Posted by Tim2179 View Post
What rate are you at Ross? 500k at 5% is $25000/yr in interest, compared to $17500 at 3.5%, which works out to be about $650/mo difference.
The difference between a 500k 3.5% loan and a $500k 5% loan is not $650/mo. It's $440. $2,245 payment vs $2,684. About 20% higher.
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:51 AM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by 213374U View Post
5.8%!?!?!? Gottdam, that's insane!

3.25% here. Tried using a bit of equity recently to consolidate some debt at a lower rate but the VA Loan (in Texas at least) carries some restrictions that would have required me to refinance the entire amount. They couldn't come back with anything under 4.5% so I chose to leave it, wasn't about to take that longterm hit to save a few bucks on consumer debt.
When I bought my miserable townhome before the crash 2008 I believe they were closer to 7%, I got 6.5% as some new construction kickback from the builder to the lender and that was considered great. Fortunately got it to a 3.5/15 a few years ago.

I fear we’ll have another mini bubble pop when the fed kicks rates back to reasonable levels, it’s going to have a definite impact on people’s spending power.
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:54 AM
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There's reverse gentrification going on in my neighborhood. My area was primarily upper middle class Asians and then one Mexican moved in, then another, and another, and now the streets are lined bumper to bumper with Mexican styled cars because Mexicans have furniture in their garages where they hold social gatherings and presumably house more Mexicans and they don't park in the driveway because it restricts pedestrian access to the garage-livingrooms.

The average home price in this ghetto Utopia is $310k, but these same cookie cutter styled homes are $430k in neighborhoods with less Mexicans.
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