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Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

 
Old 01-09-2019, 04:09 PM
  #1  
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Default Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

So as most of you know I'm a poor loser who ignored the best advice when buying real estate: "get the crappiest house in the best neighborhood."

We did the opposite. Bought a really nice, move-in-ready home in a kinda crappy town/neighborhood. Herndon VA if you know it.

Our home has increased in value since we bought it, but it's not valued as high per sq/ft as we would want...That's the neighborhood dragging it down.

We've been hopeful (maybe delusional) that the redevelopment and rising prices of Old Town/Historic Herndon (literally around the corner) would eventually cause our value to rise. We are getting a fancy microbrewery within walking distance and across the street from that, there are huge lux townhouses with elevators and $700k+ pricetags. We are also getting 2 Metro stops in Herndon next year, both within 3 miles/10 mins.

On the other side of us, around the other corner, is MS-13 territory. That's my problem value-wise. Subsidized housing, periodic murders, and one of those 7-Elevens where tons of (presumably undocumented) immigrants hang out waiting for work.

So, on the nearest major road outside of my development, There are some big lots. Half-acre to an acre, with tiny little houses on them (1500 sq-ft). They haven't sold in a long time. It occurred to me the other day that at some point, far off in the future, these lots might see similar development to what's happening in nicer towns in our area (Amazarlington, Falls Church, Vienna, McLean, Great Falls) where the old homes are coming down and being replaced by huge custom lux homes.

Now I just found out something cool. One of these homes just sold, on a weird 1-acre triangle lot. I assumed it was going to be demolished to make way for a bigger, nicer home. But what's actually happening is that a developer came in and is building 3 homesites there.

Am I wrong to be excited here? This is a kind of development that I didn't think I would see for another 5-10 years. Is this little pocket of my town about to take off? Or is this just wishful thinking? How do you Property Dads judge these cycles? We have only been in the house like 15 months and are new to the "fun with home equity" game.
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:18 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Responding from the Austin, Texas area and I have no idea what you're talking about
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:18 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

I wish you could see North Gay Street here in Auburn. Most all of the homes were like you described and owned by either one of two families or by sororities or frats. Now within the last 3 months, all of the homes owned by those two families have been torn down with the exception of one that the builders are using as an house. A developer is building few larger condos close to the road and them an entire subdivision behind them. From the time the heavy equipment arrive to start to demo to the time they had their first 3 buildings dried in was less than 20 days.

Keep your hopes up. Change can happen fast, and I'm so glad it did. Just last year, a resident of North Gay Street posted on Facebook about how he had "fucked a lot of yalls wifes and mamas and girlfriends this past year, I ain't gonna lie." He was shot dead in his home less than an hour later. All those are gone now. Yay.
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:33 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by Ross View Post
Herndon VA
Demographics

White people: 50%




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Old 01-09-2019, 04:35 PM
  #5  
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by 213374U View Post
Responding from the Austin, Texas area and I have no idea what you're talking about
lol you were the guy who encouraged me on this topic a few months ago when I mentioned the microbrewery and the redevelopment of the "downtown".
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:36 PM
  #6  
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

You planning on moving?
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:38 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

^Ha. Was just going to ask the same; how long are you planning on staying in your current place?
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:39 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by Ross View Post
Am I wrong to be excited here? This is a kind of development that I didn't think I would see for another 5-10 years. Is this little pocket of my town about to take off? Or is this just wishful thinking? How do you Property Dads judge these cycles? We have only been in the house like 15 months and are new to the "fun with home equity" game.
Generally suburbs see gentrification differently from cities, I wouldn't get too excited.

Also home developments aren't really great predictors of anything afaik....you better hope they don't start building & go belly up if the economy cools more...that's a recipe for anything but gentrification.

Sincerely,

GDD's resident enemy of gentrification
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:41 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by Rguy View Post
You planning on moving?
Eventually yeah. Doesn't everyone?

This is our first home purchase together and my first, period. We love the house but if there were a sudden, significant increase in equity we would definitely consider it. The local school is just OK, middle of the road.

Put it this way, we wouldn't want to buy any of the other homes in the neighborhood aside from ours and maybe a few others. But they are still selling for $500k+ now.
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:51 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

post microbrewery tap list when they open and I’ll evaluate.
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:56 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by Ross View Post
Eventually yeah. Doesn't everyone?

.
of course. But I also realize that if my home value has gone up, then the other more desirable neighborhoods I might want to move to in the area most definitely have also.

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Old 01-09-2019, 04:56 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

If you plan to stay "in the area" if you sell you're likely going to have to pay into a similar scale when you buy your next one. Only way to make it big is to sell and gtfo to somewhere that your money goes further. We're staying put till the kids are gone and we can do just that, despite sitting on $135K in equity in under 5 years in the home. Only gonna go up too.

If the gentrification is just now starting then sit tight for another 5-7 years and cash out at the peak of the fever buys.
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Old 01-09-2019, 05:00 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by Ross View Post
The local school is just OK, middle of the road.
Elementary school should be fine. When she starts middle school, itís time to bounce.
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Old 01-09-2019, 05:03 PM
  #14  
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by Rguy View Post
of course. But I also realize that if my home value has gone up, then the other more desirable neighborhoods I might want to move to in the area most definitely have also.
Originally Posted by 213374U View Post
If you plan to stay "in the area" if you sell you're likely going to have to pay into a similar scale when you buy your next one. Only way to make it big is to sell and gtfo to somewhere that your money goes further. We're staying put till the kids are gone and we can do just that, despite sitting on $135K in equity in under 5 years in the home. Only gonna go up too.

If the gentrification is just now starting then sit tight for another 5-7 years and cash out at the peak of the fever buys.
Understood, but we will have a ton of money that we didn't have before and would have just pissed away on rent.

Also because of the metro and the current pricing, this area may blow up faster than the established, stable areas we would like to move to.

Bauley did what you guys are saying, sort of. He moved way out, now he has his forever home and will never need to move.
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Old 01-09-2019, 05:11 PM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

I didn't realize Herndon was that bad. I'm in Vienna / Tysons often and drive to Herndon to grab beer from Aslin, but I think that area is more in Reston.

That said, I REALLY like Vienna. I would definitely live there if I had to move for work.
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Old 01-09-2019, 05:32 PM
  #16  
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Explain this MS13 money and is that good?
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:52 AM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Unless you start seeing shopping centers or schools pop up, I don't think it's cause for excitement.

What if that land is going to apartments or affordable housing? (Devil's Advocate here) Probably not likely but you never know.

If you're only 1 year in, you are somewhat stuck for a while and hopefully it pays off for you in the future.

We bought our town home around an area most people would turn their nose up at but I had a feeling with all the local GOV and companies like Lockheed, etc that it would take off.
Well they built a HUGE shopping center and about 500 more houses within 2 miles of us, sold ASAP and used profits to buy smallest house in best neighborhood.
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Old 01-10-2019, 06:01 AM
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I used to think speculation based on gentrification was......speculative at best. But seeing what happened in Detroit made me really wish I scooped up some shitty dirt lot back in 2010 and flipped it for a 6 figure+ profit.
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Old 01-10-2019, 06:13 AM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by Mattb16teg View Post
We bought our town home around an area most people would turn their nose up at but I had a feeling with all the local GOV and companies like Lockheed, etc that it would take off.
Well they built a HUGE shopping center and about 500 more houses within 2 miles of us, sold ASAP and used profits to buy smallest house in best neighborhood.
Same boat and I would do this right now if it weren't for the kids. But then again I likely wouldn't even be in the house I'm in if it weren't for the kids.
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Old 01-10-2019, 06:18 AM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by tron_ View Post
I used to think speculation based on gentrification was......speculative at best. But seeing what happened in Detroit made me really wish I scooped up some shitty dirt lot back in 2010 and flipped it for a 6 figure+ profit.
But that's Detroit where said dirt lot was probably worth $1, here in MD and VA, even the worst isn't the worst compared to the rest of the country.
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Old 01-10-2019, 06:21 AM
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Originally Posted by 213374U View Post
Same boat and I would do this right now if it weren't for the kids. But then again I likely wouldn't even be in the house I'm in if it weren't for the kids.
We bought this house mainly for the future and kiddos. It's that Stepford wife type area.
A little too "White People Suburb" than I am used to.
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Old 01-10-2019, 06:22 AM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by Mattb16teg View Post
We bought this house mainly for the future and kiddos. It's that Stepford wife type area.
A little too "White People Suburb" than I am used to.
Yea, you are pretty up there.
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Old 01-10-2019, 06:23 AM
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Default Re: Gentrification, your neighborhood, and you

Originally Posted by Ross View Post
Now I just found out something cool. One of these homes just sold, on a weird 1-acre triangle lot. I assumed it was going to be demolished to make way for a bigger, nicer home. But what's actually happening is that a developer came in and is building 3 homesites there.

Am I wrong to be excited here? This is a kind of development that I didn't think I would see for another 5-10 years. Is this little pocket of my town about to take off? Or is this just wishful thinking? How do you Property Dads judge these cycles? We have only been in the house like 15 months and are new to the "fun with home equity" game.
Now I could be wrong, but I feel like you and I went round after ugly round a few years ago on the topic of gentrification, and you weren't on the side of "excited" regarding the concept. Am I mistaken, or did you evolve?
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Old 01-10-2019, 06:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Ross View Post
. He moved way out, now he has his forever home and will never need to move.
Ive known more than a few people who "moved way out" to get a nice big home, then realized that way out is actually awful. People dont want to come see you, everything takes 30 minutes to get to, your options for things are extremely limited. Just like a business, location is everything.

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Old 01-10-2019, 06:24 AM
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Originally Posted by oneludesol View Post
Now I could be wrong, but I feel like you and I went round after ugly round a few years ago on the topic of gentrification, and you weren't on the side of "excited" regarding the concept. Am I mistaken, or did you evolve?
He's trying to cash in

Gentrification is bad after a certain point.
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